Perceived Industry Resilience to AI: A Two-Wave Survey of Employees Across 15 Sectors

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to transform industries unevenly, yet little is known about how employees themselves evaluate the capacity of their industries to adapt. This study introduces perceived industry resilience to AI as a meso-level construct linking individual perceptions to sectoral conditions, and examines its level, sectoral differences, short-term change, and individual-level correlates. We draw on a two-wave repeated cross-sectional survey of employed respondents in Germany (T1: July 2025; T2: January/February 2026; pooled N = 1,707) covering 15 industry sectors, with research questions and hypothesis preregistered between the two waves. Measurement invariance testing established the cross-wave comparability of the outcome. Survey-weighted models and cluster-robust regressions with equivalence tests were used for inference. Perceived AI resilience was generally low and showed no evidence of overall change between waves. Industries differed markedly: employees in information technology and data processing reported the highest resilience perceptions, employees in administration and public service as well as social services the lowest, and these differences showed no evidence of change across waves. Employees who saw the benefits of AI for their own profession as outweighing its risks, and who regarded political institutions as responsive, reported higher perceived resilience in both waves. The findings suggest that resilience perceptions are anchored in these occupational and political evaluations, with implications for sector-specific workforce policy and communication.

Marco Lünich

Social Scientist

My research interests include the public perception of Digital Media, Big Data, and Artificial Intelligence.